Economists predict major growth trends for state economy

By WVUA 23 Digital Reporter Kyrsten Eller

Alabama’s economy could see an increase in growth this year as the state continues to reopen commerce in the wake of COVID-19, according to researchers at The University of Alabama.

UA economists predict the state’s economy to grow 3.4% to reach $213.5 billion in Alabama’s gross domestic product. This follows the 4.8% growth in 2021.

“A 3.4% growth rate is great, considering the growth rate in the years before 2021,” said Ahmad Ijaz, executive director of the center. “It’s likely we will revise this upward, depending on how the data comes in from the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.”

Part of the Culverhouse College of Business, UA’s Center for Business and Economic Research has produced forecasts of economic activity in Alabama since 1980.

The forecasts cover Alabama’s gross domestic product, employment and income by industry group and are published in the annual Alabama Economic Outlook.

“The rate of increase in prices in 2022 may slow down some, but we will still see an increase in price levels in 2022,” Ijaz said. “Hopefully, it won’t be as significant as in 2021, but the changes in prices will continue albeit at a slower pace until the supply side issues and the labor market issues can be resolved.”

For state tax collections, researchers predict economic growth and yet-to-be-spent federal recovery money will continue to increase.